Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.086486 0.096268 0.106320 0.117396 0.129230 0.141471 0.155065
2025-01-19 0.068877 0.083332 0.098993 0.117099 0.137332 0.159132 0.184276
2025-01-26 0.061564 0.079867 0.100573 0.125431 0.154164 0.186052 0.223828
2025-02-02 0.052623 0.073050 0.097127 0.127046 0.162681 0.203249 0.252404
2025-02-09 0.046210 0.068248 0.095196 0.129699 0.171844 0.220843 0.281299
2025-02-16 0.039733 0.062483 0.091337 0.129359 0.176916 0.233285 0.303984
2025-02-23 0.037339 0.061674 0.093417 0.136158 0.190553 0.255931 0.338890
2025-03-02 0.034817 0.060344 0.094558 0.141571 0.202375 0.276390 0.371301
2025-03-09 0.029939 0.055141 0.090072 0.139269 0.204125 0.284256 0.388266
2025-03-16 0.025331 0.049797 0.084929 0.135669 0.203854 0.289343 0.401632
2025-03-23 0.023812 0.048978 0.085995 0.140364 0.214348 0.307992 0.431928
2025-03-30 0.021947 0.047401 0.085814 0.143229 0.222370 0.323514 0.458404
2025-04-06 0.019813 0.045299 0.084904 0.145274 0.229684 0.338706 0.485315
2025-04-13 0.017503 0.042654 0.083023 0.145868 0.235073 0.351566 0.509573
2025-04-20 0.017541 0.044163 0.087590 0.155905 0.253589 0.381835 0.556501
2025-04-27 0.015847 0.042311 0.086744 0.157923 0.261003 0.397574 0.584888
2025-05-04 0.014548 0.041036 0.086699 0.161055 0.269954 0.415395 0.616101
2025-05-11 0.012745 0.038522 0.084432 0.160683 0.273863 0.426459 0.638553
2025-05-18 0.012529 0.039219 0.087536 0.168561 0.289612 0.453562 0.682218
2025-05-25 0.012061 0.039318 0.089588 0.174818 0.303080 0.477679 0.722117
2025-06-01 0.010291 0.036320 0.086067 0.172161 0.303488 0.483935 0.738328
2025-06-08 0.008535 0.033024 0.081749 0.168001 0.301507 0.486785 0.749928
2025-06-15 0.008175 0.033022 0.083379 0.173426 0.313712 0.509255 0.787874